Building predictive models

Instead of acting reflexively, we can consciously combine memories with incoming sensory data to build predictive models of the world. We can then explore possible actions and choose our actions based on this predictive model.

How can we know what the best course of action is, particularly when the world can be so uncertain?

Sometimes we act reflexively, continuing down a path that may have been set by other people, by circumstances or previous decisions. Sometimes, however, we feel the urge to shift gears and change the course.

In times like these, we feel it is important to get it right - to understand what is happening around us and take actions that have the desired effect. And so, in times like these, we need a good predictive model of reality.

By integrating past experiences and knowledge with real-time sensory information, we can create a more nuanced understanding of our environment. We can parse the signal from the noise - and even parse false narratives from the truth, even when both are enormously consistent.

Constructing cognitive models of the world takes time and energy. But there is a great reward - an understanding of our reality which allows us to anticipate likely outcomes and navigate complex situations with greater awareness.

Once we have developed predictive models of the world around us, we can engage in a thoughtful exploration of possible actions. This involves considering various scenarios and their potential consequences, carefully weighing the pros and cons of each option based on the predictive model. We may consider short-term gain, comfort and safety, and weigh these considerations against long-term goals and moral concerns.

Constructing cognitive models of the world takes time and energy. But there is a great reward - an understanding of our reality which allows us to anticipate likely outcomes and navigate complex situations with greater awareness.

Rather than simply reacting to stimuli, we can deliberately choose our actions. This conscious approach of predictive modeling not only enhances our decision-making capability but also empowers us to adapt to changing circumstances more effectively. By deploying cognitive resources whenever new information presents itself, we can adjust as needed - and improve our ability to respond to challenges and opportunities in a thoughtful and intentional way.

We all have predictive models of the world, whether we appreciate it or not! One notable example of differing predictive models that we all experienced in recent years surrounded the pandemic - we all had to look at the world around us and decide whether SARS-CoV-2 was a risk to our safety and well-being, or whether the vaccine developed to fight this virus was a greater risk to our safety and well-being. Each person built a predictive model of the world - the likely state of reality. And that predictive model allowed each of us to state our assumptions and our beliefs, and allowed each of us to select actions within our own operational framework. These decisions may even have made the difference between life and death.

Predictive models are a powerful therapeutic tool that help patients to consciously engage with the present moment. When a person puts the effort toward intentionally building predictive models - addressing their own assumptions and beliefs and sources of information - this activity puts the person into a position of agency. Predictive models allow a person to move beyond reflexive perception and action, providing a framework for conscious perception and decision-making.

Conifold Counseling uses predictive modeling as a critical step toward consciously engaging with the world. This process allows a person to interact with reality. Once there is engagement, then there can be understanding and agency. With acceptance of present circumstances, we can make informed and conscious decisions.